22% of global population expected to be obese by 2045
New research presented at this year’s European Congress on Obesity in Vienna, Austria demonstrates that if current trends continue, almost a quarter (22%) of the people in the world will be obese by 2045 (up from 14% in 2017), and one in eight (12%) will have type 2 diabetes (up from 9% in 2017).
New research presented at this year’s European Congress on Obesity in Vienna, Austria demonstrates that if current trends continue, almost a quarter (22%) of the people in the world will be obese by 2045 (up from 14% in 2017), and one in eight (12%) will have type 2 diabetes (up from 9% in 2017). The research indicates that in order to prevent the prevalence of type 2 diabetes from going above 10% in 2045, global obesity levels must be reduced by 25%.
Population data for all countries in the world were obtained from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (a World Health Organization database), and for each country, the population was divided into age groups. From 2000 to 2014 (chosen because data are most reliable from 2000 onwards) the population in each age group was divided into body mass index (BMI) categories. For each country and age group, the share of people in each BMI class was projected. The diabetes risk for each age and BMI group was then applied, allowing estimations of diabetes prevalence for each country each year. The prevalence for each country was calibrated to match International Diabetes Federation’s regional estimates thereby considering differences in way of life, nutrition, and genetic disposition for diabetes.
In 2014, three institutions—Novo Nordisk Research and Development (Søborg, Denmark), Novo Nordisk Health Advocacy (Bagsværd, Denmark), and the Steno Diabetes Center (Gentofte, Denmark)—collaborated to launch the Cities Changing Diabetes program to accelerate the global fight against urban diabetes. The program began with eight cities: Copenhagen, Rome, Houston, Johannesburg, Vancouver, Mexico City, Tianjin, and Shanghai. These have since been joined by seven more cities: Beijing, Buenos Aires, Hangzhou, Koriyama, Leicester, Mérida, and Xiamen.
The program has established local partnerships in these 15 cities to address the social factors and cultural determinants that can increase type 2 diabetes vulnerability among people living in their cities. Part of this work included projections of obesity and diabetes based on both current trends and on a global target scenario. The research has led to an increased understanding of the different challenges each city is faced with regarding genetic, environmental, and social determinants of diabetes in that city.
“These numbers underline the staggering challenge the world will face in the future in terms of numbers of people who are obese, or have type 2 diabetes, or both. As well as the medical challenges these people will face, the costs to countries’ health systems will be enormous,” said Alan Moses, senior vice president and global chief medical officer, Novo Nordisk.