Projections for food security in Sub-Saharan Africa

While Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is one of the most food-insecure regions in the world, some areas of SSA are expected to show progress in improving food security over the next 10 years, according to an article published in Amber Waves from the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA ERS).

The 39 Sub-Saharan African countries can be divided into four sub-regions: Central Africa (four countries), East Africa (10 countries), Southern Africa (nine countries), and Western Africa (16 countries). These sub-regions differ in social and economic structure, and average income levels, which helps account for the differences in food security.

Over the next 10 years, the share of food-insecure people in both East and West Africa is expected to drop 45%, while the absolute number of food-insecure people will fall 30%. By 2028, the share of food-insecure people in West Africa is expected to drop below 10%. Sustained growth in East Africa’s largest economies will help reduce the share of food-insecure people in that sub-region from 43% in 2018 to 24% in 2028.

More people are projected to be food insecure in Southern Africa in 10 years than today, though the share of the population that is food insecure is projected to fall from 44% to 36%. Slow economic growth and macroeconomic instability are expected to increase the number of food-insecure people in Central Africa to 89 million by 2028, up 11%.

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