Climate change, bee declines may slash Latin America coffee production
Global warming and declines in bee species and populations may reduce coffee-growing areas in Latin America by as much as 88% by 2050, according to a study “Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change” published recently in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Global warming and declines in bee species and populations may reduce coffee-growing areas in Latin America by as much as 88% by 2050, according to a study “Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change” published recently in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Researchers modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. The model results suggest that coffee-suitable areas will be reduced 73–88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46–76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8–18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least five bee species, and 46–59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In the models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10–22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34–51% of other areas.
The results highlight the need for responsive management strategies (e.g., forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, etc.) tailored to bee pollination, coffee suitability, and potential coupled effects.