Nearly three months have passed since most U.S. restaurant dine-in operations were ordered to close to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus. In the week ending May 31, more than 68% of all restaurant units are in states, counties, or municipalities where they are permitted to reopen their on-premise service. The new guidelines do not mean all restaurants in those areas have reopened, but it is an indicator of loosening regulations. With a growing number of restaurant dine-in services reopening, major restaurant chain customer transactions have been improving, reported The NPD Group. In the week ending May 31, U.S. restaurant chain transactions declined by 18% compared with the same period a year ago, a 3% week-over-week improvement.

Restaurant industry performance varies geographically based on local policies for restaurant reopenings and the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak. As expected, New York and California, where restaurants are still not permitted to open for on-premise dining, had the steepest customer transaction declines, -34% and -27%, respectively, in the week ending May 31 versus a year ago. Restaurant transactions in Kentucky, where on-premise dining at limited capacity was allowed starting May 11, declined by 2%, reported NPD.

In the week ending May 31, major full-service restaurant chains, which were hardest hit by the dine-in closures, realized a 37% decline in transactions compared with a year ago, a 15% increase from the prior week. Quick-service restaurant chain transactions, which represent the bulk of industry transactions, declined by 16% compared with the same period in 2019 versus an 18% decline in the week ending May 24.

“The U.S. foodservice industry today remains solidly in the restart phase as restaurants begin to reopen their on-premise operations,” said David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor and author of Eating Patterns in America, in a press release. “The industry will move to the recovery phase when all states reopen on-premise dining, and we can begin to make a detailed assessment of how many permanent restaurant closures there are and how that will affect what the industry will look like as it re-emerges.”

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