Global food markets brace for more uncertainty because of COVID-19

Food markets will face many more months of uncertainty due to COVID-19. Still, the agri-food sector is likely to show more resilience to the pandemic crisis than other sectors, according to a new report (pdf) released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The Food Outlook report provides the first forecasts for production and market trends in 2020/21 for the world’s most traded food commodities—cereals, oil crops, meat, dairy, fish, and sugar.

“The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been felt—at varying degrees—across all food sectors assessed by FAO,” said Boubaker Ben-Belhassen, director of the FAO trade and markets division, in a press release. “While COVID-19 has posed a serious threat to food security, overall, our analysis shows that from the global perspective, agricultural commodity markets are proving to be more resilient to the pandemic than many other sectors. That said, owing to the size of the challenge and the enormous uncertainties associated with it, the international community must remain vigilant and ready to react if and when necessary.”

Cereals. Despite uncertainties posed by the pandemic, the FAO’s first forecasts for the 2020/21 season point to a comfortable cereal supply and demand situation. Early prospects suggest global cereal production in 2020 will surpass the previous year’s record by 2.6%. World cereal trade in 2020/21 is projected to stand at 433 million tons, up 2.2% (9.4 million tons) from 2019/20, and setting a record high, boosted by expected expansions in the trade of all major cereals.

Meat. World total meat production is forecast to fall by 1.7% in 2020, due to animal diseases, COVID-19-related market disruptions, and the lingering effects of droughts. International meat trade is likely to register a moderate growth—but considerably slower growth than in 2019—sustained mainly by high imports from China. International meat prices have fallen by 8.6% from January 2020, with the sharpest drop in ovine (sheep) meat, followed by poultry, pig, and bovine meats due to the impacts of COVID-19-related measures, including ensuing logistical bottlenecks, a steep decline in global import demand, and substantial volumes of unsold meat products.

Fish. The COVID-19 pandemic will continue to heavily affect seafood markets, particularly fresh products and popular restaurant species this year. On the supply side, fishing fleets are lying idle, and aquaculture producers have drastically reduced stocking targets. The pandemic is set to severely hit global shrimp and salmon production. The shrimp farming season in Asia, which generally begins in April, is now delayed until June/July. In India, for example, farmed shrimp production is expected to fall by 30%–40%.

Also, worldwide demand for both fresh and frozen shrimp is declining significantly, while demand for salmon is expected to drop by at least 15% in 2020. Retail sales of fresh salmon and trout have fallen considerably, and this will not recover for some time.

Sugar. World production of sugar in 2019–2020 is forecast to drop for the second consecutive year and fall below the estimated level of global consumption—for the first time in three years. Trade in sugar is foreseen to expand, sustained by low prices and stock rebuilding in some traditional importing countries. So far, the expectation of a global sugar production deficit for the 2019/20 season has done little to support international sugar prices, which have been falling since mid-2017, and are below estimated production costs for the vast majority of world producers.

Milk. Notwithstanding market disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, world milk production is showing resilience, possibly growing by 0.8% in 2020. However, world dairy exports are expected to contract by 4%, amid faltering import demand.

Oil crops. Despite subdued demand prospects linked—among other things—to the pandemic, the FAO’s latest 2019/20 forecasts for oilseeds and derived products point towards a tightening global supply–demand situation, triggered by a marked contraction in production. Tentative estimates for 2020/21 suggest that supplies could remain tight relative to demand.