Why The Next Big Thing Might Not Be, After All

You’ve flipped through the March issue of Food Technology and learned of the many areas of innovation in our industry made possible by the arrival of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, which many now consider to be The Next Big Thing.

The food industry is always seeking The Next Big Thing because significant changes in the business of food are rare events. New flavors, brands, or packaging can certainly win business from established competitors, and new superfoods, super ingredients, and functionality can win converts.

But stubbornly, the overall consumption of food—and demand for our industry’s products—doesn’t grow much faster than the population’s steadily expanding waistband, which the GLP-1 class of drugs intends to reverse along with a substantial change in what and how people will eat.

Groupthink says we should get on board, and it’s generally a safe business move to do what the rest of the industry is doing. Of course, that was also what was said about plant-based meat analogues in the past few years, and many other Next Big Things in decades prior.

But despite our strong desires, GLP-1 medications already seem not to be such a Big Thing, and a new generation of supportive food products are unlikely to achieve lofty sales growth or to radically transform the industry. Rather, GLP-1 appears more like olestra, which launched to great fanfare before disappearing off shelves.

For those who remember (or prefer to forget), olestra was The Next Big Thing in 1998; it supported weight loss while also promising the delicious crunch of potato chips and other fried foods without the calories. It also came with a slew of gastrointestinal side effects best left to the imagination.

GLP-1 drugs also promise to support weight loss along with an array of side effects that similarly include a colorful mix of vomiting, nausea, and both diarrhea and constipation. Its benefit also comes from long-term use and is focused on treating overweight and obesity and chronic diseases needing ongoing treatment.

Already, there are signs that GLP-1 drugs may follow a path similar to that of olestra. A study of health insurance claims for this class of medications found that 58% of users stopped after 12 weeks or less, long before the weight loss benefits kicked in, and 30% stopped after less than four weeks. That’s not a strong endorsement for a drug that is meant for long-term use.

When olestra entered the market, food companies unexpectedly found there were very few repeat buyers. Sales across the category quickly slowed, and most products were rebranded or discontinued a decade ago. Last year, shoppers could find no products formulated with olestra for sale anywhere.

More recently, plant-based meat analogues were The Next Big Thing and were forecast to replace a substantial share of the $130 billion-plus market for meat. But sales for the largest and best known brands peaked well under $200 million before declining in both value and volume of product sold.

GLP-1 drugs are likely to fare a bit better on the revenue side. Pharmaceuticals cost a lot more than food per “serving,” and health insurance subsidizes the cost for many. Plus, GLP-1 medications may not disappear forever but rather be a drug prescribed to those with the most severe forms of obesity. For a few, suffering through its symptoms is worth a longer lifespan after all, a much bigger upside than squeezing into your old jeans.

Of course, the host of GLP-1-friendly foods that are high in protein, low in fat, high in fiber, and appropriate in calories also support a conventional diet for those looking to maintain weight or lose it. To help consumers achieve healthy weights and healthy lifespans, The Next Big Thing may not be so “next” or new at all. Instead, it might be to offer healthier foods—something our industry already knows how to do.

Imagine: a mix of healthier foods and regular exercise could be the [not so] secret to better health and fitting into your old jeans. It may not be The Next Big Thing your company is looking for or a shortcut to weight loss, but it is a proven recipe to cure what ails us.ft

The opinions expressed in Dialogue are those of the author.