Climate change could cause drought in wheat-growing areas

A study published in Science Advances suggests that unless steps are taken to mitigate climate change, up to 60% of current wheat-growing areas worldwide could see simultaneous, severe, and prolonged droughts by the end of the century. Wheat is the world’s largest rain-fed crop in terms of harvested area and supplies about 20% of all calories consumed by humans.

The risk of widespread drought in wheat production areas is four times the level scientists see today, said coauthor Song Feng, associate professor of geosciences at the University of Arkansas. Such droughts would be a shock to the food production system. “If only one country or region sees a drought there is less impact,” Song said. “But if multiple regions are affected simultaneously, it can affect global production and food prices, and lead to food insecurity.”

For the study, Feng and colleagues analyzed 27 climate models, each of which had three different scenarios. “It was terabytes of information, and it took a couple months and multiple computers to run,” Song said.

The study found that historically, the total area affected by severe drought worldwide and food prices are closely related. More widespread drought has meant higher food prices in the past. Given present-day weather patterns, severe drought could affect up to 15% of current wheat growing areas. Researchers found that even if global warming is held to 2℃ above pre-industrial levels, the target of the Paris Agreement, up to 30% of global wheat production areas could see simultaneous drought. “This clearly suggests that that global warming will affect food production,” said Feng.

The researchers concluded that the results “underline the urgent need for concerted global efforts to limit global warming within the targets of the Paris Agreement.”

Study